Challenges under the new energy pattern of the hot

2022-07-26
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Challenges under the new pattern of world energy: how to game China Russia energy cooperation

apart from oil and gas, the energy cooperation between the two countries will be extended to other energy fields, including power, coal, nuclear power, and even energy equipment. However, China Russia cooperation is mostly concentrated in the field of traditional energy, and the two sides lack sparks in the field of new energy

on May 21, 2014, China and Russia signed a long-awaited 30-year long-term natural gas supply and marketing agreement with a total value of US $400billion. A lot of discussions focused on the gas purchase price in the agreement, mainly because the price issue led to the protracted negotiation between China and Russia

however, the importance of this agreement far exceeds the content of the agreement itself, which can be regarded as an important turning point in China Russia energy cooperation. The signing of the agreement also reflects the urgent needs of China and Russia in the field of energy to a certain extent. The short-term significance of the agreement is that for China, smog control urgently requires Russia to provide clean natural gas. For Russia, it needs to prove to the western countries as soon as possible that the impact of economic sanctions on it will be very limited, because it can easily find other buyers of natural gas

in the long run, the agreement will help promote all-round cooperation between the two countries in the energy field, including oil, coal, electricity, etc. Therefore, the agreement is a win-win situation for China and Russia

Russia is rich in energy resources. The international trade volume of natural gas in Russia ranks first in the world, and the export of oil and petroleum products ranks second in the world. In 2013, Russia's proved natural gas reserves reached 43.3 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 35% of the world's proved reserves. The natural gas production reached 487.4 billion cubic meters, and the export volume reached 162.7 billion cubic meters. Therefore, Russia has a relatively large say in the world natural gas market

in 2013, Russia ranked third in China's crude oil imports. The cooperation between China and Russia included the agreement that China would provide $25billion in loans to Russia. In exchange, Russia will obtain 15million tons of oil supply from Russia every year within 20 years from 2011, and Russia will build skovorodinomo river oil pipeline. In the future, the cooperation between China and Russia in the oil field will be more diversified, including the cooperation mode. China Russia oil cooperation will not be limited to oil supply, but also expand to participate in oil development, processing and sales in the future

enlightenment from American energy independence

recently, the International Energy Agency predicted that thanks to the vigorous development of shale oil, the United States will probably achieve energy independence in 20 years. The United States is changing its role in the global energy market, while China will face a more complex external energy environment. Investigating the oil production and energy independence of the United States and exploring the future world energy pattern will help China cope with the increasingly serious energy security problems

China's traditional energy security strategy is based on energy shortage and the rapid rise of energy prices (especially oil prices). However, the trend of energy independence in the United States, as well as the qualitative changes in the global energy supply and demand pattern and Energy Fundamentals, require us to stand at a new height at least 10 inches away and re-examine China's energy security strategy from a broader perspective

in the primary energy structure of the United States, only a large amount of oil needs to be imported, so oil independence is the focus of the energy independence strategy of the United States. The current foreign policy of the United States is to some extent kidnapped by the international oil price (stabilizing the international oil price). In the future, once the United States becomes energy independent, it means that the impact of the international oil price on its domestic macro-economy will be weakened. At the same time, as the U.S. oil strategic layout shrinks to the area around the Atlantic (8.45, -0.01, -0.12%), will its foreign policy (especially the Middle East Policy) be more flexible? How will the impact of its foreign policy on geopolitics affect China's macroeconomic operation through its impact on energy trade

in this context, China's response strategies to ensure energy security need to be considered in many aspects and laid out in advance. In fact, there are not many choices. The most important thing is to diversify the risks through energy import, and to minimize the dependence on oil and natural gas imports by adjusting domestic and foreign energy supply and demand strategies

on the supply side, first, diversify energy imports as much as possible, further expand oil and gas cooperation with Russia and Central Asia, and try to open up a land connection with the Middle East through Central Asia to reduce dependence on the Middle East and the Malacca Strait; The second is to look for oil substitutes in China (such as electric vehicles). On the demand side, it is necessary to restrain the rapidly growing domestic oil demand as much as possible, which involves the reform of the energy price mechanism. Therefore, China Russia energy cooperation is an important part of energy import diversification

China Russia energy cooperation is highly complementary

China and Russia are highly complementary in energy resources and energy markets. From the perspective of Russia, it is rich in energy resources. At present, Russia is the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second largest exporter of oil and its products. Energy exports account for about 70% of its total exports. Therefore, the decline of energy exports will have a significant adverse impact on its economy

due to the decline in demand growth, the share of traditional European market in Russia's energy export market tends to decline. In addition, the shale gas boom in the United States may make it relax the export ban on oil and natural gas. The above two aspects have stimulated Russia to speed up the search for potential buyers for its energy products. On the other hand, the rapid development of Asian markets, especially China and India, has made them an emerging market for Russian energy exports. There is no doubt that China is the most potential buyer in the energy market

in a sense, the strong demand growth of China's energy not only means huge market potential, but also helps to stabilize Russia's economic growth. This strategic significance is even more prominent in the context of the slowdown of European economic growth and the decline of Russian natural gas sales in Europe caused by the natural gas revolution in the United States. On the other hand, the recent conflict in Ukraine and the economic sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia have also brought greater pressure on Russia's natural gas sales

from the perspective of China, China Russia energy cooperation helps to meet China's growing energy demand and ensure energy security. At this stage, China's economic development still depends to a large extent on the sustained and stable supply of energy. Therefore, China's energy security is closely related to sustainable economic development. In the short and medium term, China needs Russian natural gas to support air pollution control

over the past 30 years, China has achieved rapid economic growth, but it has also brought serious environmental pollution. We pay special attention to the high CTI technology of DSM materials. In particular, in recent years, the increasingly serious haze phenomenon in major cities across the country has aroused great public concern about air quality and environmental pollution. In 2013, the State Council issued the action plan for the prevention and control of air pollution. According to the plan, China will make great efforts to control air pollution and improve air quality in the next five years, focusing on Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta

in China, there are many factors causing air pollution. However, controlling the total energy consumption, vigorously developing clean energy and improving the energy structure are the priority measures to solve air pollution. This is easy to understand. In fact, the plan focuses on reducing coal consumption in eastern China. For example, the Chinese government has banned the construction of new coal-fired power plants in eastern China. The eastern region is still in the stage of rapid development, and its new energy consumption accounts for a high proportion of the new national energy consumption. Therefore, controlling the increment of energy consumption in this region will help to control the total energy consumption of the country

in terms of energy consumption structure, coal consumption accounts for about 66% of the total primary energy consumption; Coal fired power plants provide about 75% of the country's electricity. Therefore, to improve the energy consumption structure, we must vigorously develop clean energy. However, the development potential of hydropower is very limited, and the proportion of other clean energy (such as wind energy and solar energy) is too small to play a substantive role. Nuclear energy can replace coal to a large extent, but it will take a long time to improve and develop its technology. Therefore, with the implementation of the Sino Russian natural gas agreement, low emission natural gas is expected to replace about 5% of coal consumption in the near future

from a more macro and long-term perspective, the China Russia natural gas agreement is of great significance to ensuring China's energy security. China's energy import security needs to meet at least two basic and key prerequisites: first, the source of energy imports should remain basically stable, and second, the energy transport channel is safe. Russia obviously meets the above conditions. It is stable and adjacent to the land of China. There is no channel security problem

China's external dependence on oil and natural gas has been rising. In 2013, China imported about 300million tons of crude oil, with an external dependence of 58%. According to the prediction of the International Energy Agency (IEA), China's dependence on foreign oil will exceed 80% by 2035. At present, China's dependence on foreign natural gas is 35%, but it is growing rapidly. In order to ensure energy security, China needs to adopt the strategy of import diversification to disperse risks

at present, China's crude oil imports mainly come from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Oman, etc.), Africa (mainly Angola and Sudan), the former Soviet Union (mainly Russia and Kazakhstan) 10%, South America (mainly Venezuela and Brazil) 7.2%, the Asia Pacific 2.3%, and other regions. It can be seen that the Middle East region is the source of gb/t208 ⑼ 4, China's main oil cement density measurement method. However, the situation in this region has been turbulent in recent years, which has directly affected China's oil import security

at the same time, about 80% of crude oil imports are transported through the Malacca Strait, which is regarded as a major security risk. In this sense, China Russia energy cooperation helps to reduce import risks and improve China's energy security

the Sino Russian natural gas agreement is an important link in the diversification of China's natural gas imports, and has basically completed the four corner strategy of China's natural gas channel (northwest, southwest, northeast and offshore channels). The four corner channel is as follows: Northwest (Central Asia natural gas pipeline), Southwest (China Myanmar natural gas pipeline), Northeast (China Russia pipeline) and East China Sea channel (LNG import)

the four channels will ensure the diversification of China's natural gas sources and increase the proportion of natural gas in the total energy consumption in a short time. At the same time, the formation of energy channel layout is conducive to ensuring China's energy security and diversifying the channels, sources and types of energy imports

China Russia cooperation will be extended to other energy fields

China Russia energy cooperation will be further extended to other energy fields. After the agreement, another planned China Russia natural gas pipeline with a transmission capacity of 30billion cubic meters/year may also be implemented as soon as possible. Natural gas cooperation will become an important aspect of China Russia energy cooperation in the future. In addition to oil and gas, the energy cooperation between the two countries will be extended to other energy fields, including power, coal, nuclear power, and even energy equipment

at present, Russia's inter unified power company plans to export power to China, and the power transmission to China will gradually increase to 60billion kwh per year. The project is planned to

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