Glass has entered the off-season, and the overall profit of the industry has declined.
12 the Jung seminar gathered industry experts to discuss the latest development trends and technology utilization plans. In the first ten days of the month, the market trend showed an overall downward trend. East China has entered the off-season, and prices continue to weaken under the impact of glass products in central and North China; Northeast China has entered winter storage, and the price of winter storage is lower than expected; Affected by the seasonality, the price of North China market fell, and the cold repair and shutdown of two production lines in Shahe region in the short term also showed that it was not optimistic about the future market; Prices in Central China continue to weaken due to the excessive increase in supply; The demand in South China is still supported by orders. It is expected that the market price in South China may be stable as the two production lines of Shenzhen Nanbo are prepared to stop production in combination with China's material testing standards. In the past ten days, the average price of glass (4mm) in major cities was 71.1 yuan/heavy box, down 1.52% month on month. In terms of range, the price fluctuation range across the country is 1 yuan/heavy container, of which Qinhuangdao fell 2 yuan/heavy container, and Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai fell 1 yuan/heavy container respectively
we believe that in the short term, the seasonal correction of downstream demand in the industry begins to spread, and the southern region continues to decline under the impact of northern supply. We believe that the overall industry profit is in a seasonal downward trend, and it is expected that only the South China market can barely maintain stability
tracking of main indicators: kiln shutdown rate (22.13%, at a relatively high level), gross profit margin (8.28%, down 1.4% month on month), inventory (26.61 million heavy containers, unchanged month on month)
main recommended companies: CSG A and Qibin group
the off-season trend of glass is obvious, and the downward trend of the average market price may continue in the first ten days of December. The market trend shows an overall downward trend, and the prices in East China, Northeast China and Central China continue to decline due to seasonal effects; The demand in South China is still supported by orders. It is expected that the market price in South China may stabilize as the two production lines of Shenzhen Nanbo are ready to stop production. In the past ten days, the average price of glass (4mm) in major cities was 71.1 yuan/heavy box, down 1.52% month on month. In terms of range, the price fluctuation range across the country is 0.5 yuan/heavy container, of which Qinhuangdao fell by 2 yuan/heavy container, and Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai fell by 1 yuan/heavy container
the prices of heavy oil and soda ash remained stable, and the price difference narrowed further month on month
in early December, the average price of glass fell slightly by 1.1 yuan/heavy container month on month. On the cost side, the prices of soda ash and heavy oil remained stable, including 1329 yuan/ton, s=0.001mm and 4800 yuan/ton respectively. We expect that in the short term, with the seasonal impact of demand, profits may decline further
the demand in South China is stable, and the industry has entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure is increasing.
as of December 6, the industry's inventory was 26.61 million heavy containers (the month on month ratio remained unchanged). The kiln shutdown rate reached 22.13%. Due to the recent decline of demand in the northern region of the industry in the off-season, and the impact of low-cost supply in the southern region, it is expected that inventories will rise steadily. The gross profit margin of the industry is expected to be 8.28% in early December, with a sharp decrease of 1.4% month on month
valuation of glass sector and companies that focus on it
as of December 6, the Shenwan glass manufacturing index lost 4.21% to the CSI 300 index, and the absolute PE of glass sector was 31.52 times, lower than the historical average level (40.2 times the historical average level, 14 times the lowest point, 96 times the highest point). Focusing on the company, the PE of CSG A and Qibin group in 2013 were 25 times and 12 times respectively, lower than the historical average of 36 and 27 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk
China glass () Department
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