The hottest glass export will affect the prosperit

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Glass export will affect the prosperity of soda ash industry in the second half of the year.

due to the poor export of glass industry and the inability to raise prices, it is difficult to bear the high price of soda ash, and the operating rate has decreased, affecting the demand for soda ash. In April, the domestic market was relatively abundant, with more than 80% of enterprises having inventory, and the situation of short supply eased. The market was relatively abundant, and the price of soda ash basically stopped rising, while some regions fell slightly. Due to the advantages of resources, the cost of Northwest China is relatively low (the cost of Northwest China is 900 yuan/ton, which also points out the direction for the development of plastic granulator technology in China. At present, the cost of general soda ash enterprises has reached 1100-1200 yuan/ton). The biggest factor restricting the soda ash market in this region is transportation. In the early stage, the transportation of Qinghai Province to the north through Lanzhou Bureau was relatively smooth, especially the operation of Beijing Bureau and Jinan Bureau was relatively ideal, which made the northwest soda ash have a great impact on the central and Eastern markets, and the prices in North China, Northeast China and East China showed a slight correction. Recently, a large number of small enterprises in other industries in Qinghai have used carts, and the outward transportation of national key products such as potash fertilizer has occupied part of the carts, resulting in difficulties in the transportation of soda ash in this region. On the side, the improvement of transportation in Northwest China has an impact on the market price, which shows that the current tight supply of soda ash market is limited, and the increasingly sufficient supply and insurmountable cost rise have put pressure on many soda ash enterprises

at the end of last year, Chongqing Yihua 600000 ton soda plant was put into operation; In April this year, the 650000 ton project in Xin'an County, Henan Province was put into operation; The 200000 ton project of Henan flight group was put into operation; Jinjing glass production capacity of 1million tons will be put into production in batches in June and August this year; By the end of the year, there will be 1.2 million tons of Qinghai soda industry phase II, 400000 tons of Sanyou chemical, Shandong Haihua, Hubei Shuanghuan and other projects will be completed successively, and the production capacity will be mainly released in 2009. If the above projects can be put into operation as planned, the popularity of the domestic soda ash market is expected to decline from the second half of the year

the growth rate of export volume has increased with the rise of export prices. A recent study said that it has picked up

due to the continued weakness of the US dollar, the international oil price has continued to rise since September last year, driving up energy prices. Coupled with the rise in the prices of raw materials such as coke and raw salt, the production cost of soda ash has increased significantly, which has become the main reason for the current round of soda ash price rise

from January to March this year, China's export volume of soda ash has basically got rid of the negative growth of last year, showing signs of recovery. The average export price in March increased to $232/ton, up 45.8% year-on-year, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has increased by 9.4% in the past year. The negative impact of RMB appreciation has little impact on the huge rise in the price of soda ash, although the current export price has no advantage over the domestic ex factory price, However, compared with domestic businesses (downstream customers are relatively stable and the range of price increases is limited), exports can better transfer costs, and export enthusiasm is gradually restored

the production and sales of soda ash increased steadily

in the first quarter of this year, the output and consumption of soda ash increased by more than 14%, significantly higher than the export growth rate of about 4%. The first quarter data showed that the growth of domestic demand for soda ash was enough to offset the negative impact of soda ash reflux caused by the slowdown in exports, and also supported the price of soda ash to a certain extent

as the glass industry has a relatively large consumption of soda ash, and the growth of glass production and demand also directly affects the future development of the soda ash industry, with the slight decline in the growth rate of domestic GDP this year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in some industries will be adjusted, and the impact on large glass and glass products manufacturers such as construction, automobile, etc. will be the first. With the elimination of the impact of the snow disaster at the beginning of the year, the transportation has gradually returned to normal in the past two months, and the output and consumption of soda ash have also become more stable. We believe that the growth rate of domestic soda ash consumption this year will be basically the same as last year. With the gradual recovery of exports, the release of output will be more sufficient

it is worth noting that according to the statistics of the chemical industry association, the output of flat glass and daily-use glass products in March increased by 14. 5% respectively compared with the same period last year At the time of loading, it was 5.3% and 35.8%, while the monthly cumulative growth rate was only 12.9% and 9.7% respectively. The obvious recovery of glass production in March also made the annual growth of the glass industry optimistic. In recent years, there are many glass projects, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and the industry access conditions and the list of key supported enterprises have not been clear, but it is planned to forcibly eliminate 30million boxes of backward process capacity such as pingla within three years. Therefore, the future trend of the industry is uncertain. In addition, due to the tight monetary policy implemented by the state, the real estate industry has been greatly affected, which directly affects the downstream glass industry, which has been operating for more than 3000 days a year. The new Bayer process developed by the alumina industry, which uses caustic soda as raw material, also has a certain impact on the demand for soda ash in the future

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